Inside The Crystal Ball. How To Make And Use Forecasts

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A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S

Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits

Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster

Demonstrates best practices in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts


Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts

Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies

Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing QE policies

Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises

Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks in readable and illuminating detail

Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections

The book Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance

These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions

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